Mainstream Concerns about an Economic Slowdown Revisited

Recently, we reported that many believe arecession could happen within the next two years. We explained that70% of economists and market analysts surveyed last year believethat a recession will occur in 2019 or 2020 and that 42% ofconsumers currently looking to purchase a home also agree that arecession will occur this year or next.

However, the U.S. economy has performed well in the first quarterof 2019 and that has caused some experts to change their thinkingon an impending economic slowdown.

Here are a few notable examples:

AnthonyChan, ChiefEconomist at JPMorgan Chase

“I feel really comfortable that the economy is slowing downthis year, but not going into a recession… It doesn’tlook, to me, like the odds of a recession in 2020 arethere.”

Dean Baker, SeniorEconomist at the Center for Economic & PolicyResearch

 “Tosum up the general picture, the U.S. economy is definitelyweakening… However, with wages growing at a respectablepace, and job growth remaining healthy, we should see enoughconsumption demand to keep the economy moving forward. That meansslower growth, but no recession.”

Lisa Shalett, ChiefInvestment Officer, Wealth Management at MorganStanley

“I’m not convinced a recession is coming soon… Isee an improving housing market (low rates help), a rebound in banklending, a tight labor market, higher oil prices and well-behavedcredit markets. All these point to a stable U.S. economicoutlook.”

Bottom Line

Weare seeing a stronger economy than many had predicted. That hascaused some experts to push off the possibility of a recessionfurther into the horizon.