How to Judge the Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing
We’ve experienced economic growth for almost a decade,which is the longest recovery in the nation’s history.Experts know a recession can’t be too far off, but when willthis economic slowdown actually occur?
Pulsenomics just released a special report revealing that nearly 6out of 10 of the 90 economists, investment strategists, and marketanalysts surveyed believe the next recession will occur by the endof next year. Here’s the breakdown:
- 9% believe a recession will occur this year
- 50% believe it will occur in 2020
- 35% believe it will occur in 2021
- 6% believe it will occur after 2021
When asked what would trigger the next recession, the three mostcommon responses by those surveyed were:
- Trade Policy
- Stock Market Correction
- Geopolitical Crisis
How Might The Recession Impact RealEstate?
Challenges in the housing and mortgage markets were majortriggers of the last recession. However, a housing slowdown ranked#9 on the list of potential triggers for the next recession, behindsuch possibilities as fiscal policy and political gridlock.
As far as the impact the recession may have on home values, theexperts surveyed indicated home prices would continue to appreciateover the next few years. They called for a 4.1% appreciation ratethis year, 2.8% in 2020, and 2.5% in 2021.
Bottom Line
On the same day, in the same survey, the same experts whoforecasted a recession happening within the next 18 months alsoclaimed housing will not be the trigger, and home values will stillcontinue to appreciate.